Pierre, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

239
FXUS63 KABR 060827
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
327 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring a 40 to 70% chance of thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River.
There is a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather north of Hwy 14.

- Warming trend by the middle of next week, with widespread 80s for
high temperatures by Wednesday. Although, 90s not out of the
question.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Light rain continues to move across the eastern cwa early this
morning in a mid level wave of low pressure. Shortwave energy
traverses the nearly zonal flow through this afternoon. Along with
weak low pressure at 850 mb, the light rain converts more to showers
and lingers across the east. West of the light rain, fog and stratus
have developed. Areas west river are most likely to have vsby
reduced to a mile or less this morning, especially across Corson
county. Any fog is expected to mix out not long after sunrise.

South to southwest flow inreases Saturday morning ahead of a cold
front slated to move through in the afternoon. With the good
southerly mixing, high temps will pop up into the 80s along and west
of the James valley. There is shear but limited CAPE with this
front. Some thunderstorms could develop along the front by 21z in
north central SD and move east. There is a marginal risk for severe
storms with this system north of Hwy 14, but any activity looks very
isolated given the lack of instability/forcing anywhere but along
the front. Best chances may occur closer to 0z around the James
valley as a weak inverted trough nudges up into the valley and
shortwave activity increases aloft. This increased potential
revolves around a very narrow, low confidence fropa time frame,
though. By 3z, the area is post-frontal with lingering showers and
an upper trough that will usher cooler air back in to the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The long term portion of the forecast begins with an upper level
trough over Manitoba, with a surface cold front sliding across the
CWA. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front early in the
forecast period. The upper level trough will be slow to exit the
region, with cooler temperatures expected on Sunday and Monday.
Highs on Monday may only reach the low to mid 60s across eastern SD
and western MN, or 10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of
year. The upper level trough will also bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms both days over the eastern half of the CWA.

By Tuesday afternoon, the upper level trough pushes east over the
Great Lakes Region with northwesterly flow aloft over the Northern
Plains. Warmer air will move into the area with highs rebounding to
near to above average with temperatures in the mid 70s, to the mid
80s. The warm temperatures should remain over the area through the
rest of the forecast period.

Precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday across the forecast
area are more problematic. On Wednesday, an area of low pressure
settles over western South Dakota with a warm front lifting
northward across eastern South Dakota starting Wednesday night.
Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the frontal boundary. On
Thursday, the surface low pressure may still be located over western
SD, with the warm front in ND. Shortwave energy should aide in
convective development Thursday afternoon, with storms progressing
through the CWA Thursday night. The overall pattern later next week
is conducive for severe weather somewhere across the Northern
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Rain continues to migrate northeast across the CWA, with impacts
at that include MVFR VISBY and CIGS, albeit intermittently. We do
anticipate as we move through the TAF period, widespread lowering
CIGS to MVFR and possibly IFR and for KMBG and possibly KPIR a
drop in visibility due to fog to MVFR/IFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...07